Fans are excited about the streaking Sox. But should they be?

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Red Sox die-hards and casuals, skeptics and believers, welcome to the brink of the best part of baseball season: a playoff race.

We know what you’re thinking. A playoff race? For the Sox? Who have been mired in mediocrity (or worse) almost every season since they last won it all in 2018, who declared this a win-now season but traded their best hitter in June,who have been in similar situations in recent Julys but petered out shortly thereafter?

Believe it. Or, at least, feel comfortable in allowing yourself to believe it. Stay open-minded. It’s more fun that way.

Only the results on the field over the next 10 weeks and 64 games will decide the fate of the 2025 Red Sox, but at this juncture, as they return from the All-Star break to take on the Cubs Friday afternoon, they are better positioned than they have been at any time this decade.

Think back to mid-March. The talk of Sox camp was newly acquired stars Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman, plus the youth movement, especially the Big Three of Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kristian Campbell. For the first time in a bunch of years, the team seemed like it could actually be quite good.

At that point, anybody involved would have signed up for where the Red Sox stand now: 53-45, three games behind the first-place Blue Jays in the AL East, and in possession of the second AL wild-card spot. If they play, on average, for the next 2½ months like they have for the past 3½, they will qualify for October.

The operative phrase there is on average. The Sox’ eventful, unpredictable first half or so of the season featured lots of lows and even more highs. They called up Anthony, the top prospect in all of baseball, and dealt Rafael Devers, a homegrown fan favorite slugger, to the Giants. They have had a .500 record 16 times. They lost six consecutive games as recently as late June, then won 10 in a row right before the All-Star break.

Yes, six of those 10 games came against terrible teams (the Nationals and Rockies) and the other four came against the Rays, who were only slightly better than the Sox at the time. But still, 10 straight is 10 straight. There’s a reason only two other clubs have done that this year: It is awfully hard to do. And as the baseball truism goes, good teams beat up on bad teams. The Red Sox have done exactly that.

If wait-and-see is your preferred approach, we won’t try to talk you out of it. There should be some clarity by the end of the month. In the leadup to the July 31 trade deadline, the Red Sox resume their season with nine consecutive games against the National League division leaders: three at the Cubs, three at the Phillies, and three at home versus the Dodgers, the defending World Series champions.

“A gauntlet,” chief baseball officer Craig Breslow called it.

Breslow, by the way, is under significant pressure this month. He has said that he expects the Sox to be buyers at the deadline this year.

Making major midseason additions to the roster buoys not just the fans, but the players themselves. It is a front office’s way of saying: Good job so far, here’s some help, now go get it done.

And not adding has the opposite effect.

In 2021, for example, Chaim Bloom’s Red Sox were kind of good earlier than expected. Instead of going all in, though, management’s only notable acquisition was slugger Kyle Schwarber. They wound up losing in the ALCS that year — an out-of-nowhere run that did not lead to future success after what the players viewed as marginal moves.

“We got to the deadline and didn’t get anybody,” former Sox slugger and DH J.D. Martinez told me about that summer. “We needed help and we had to grind all the way back. Fortunately, we snuck into the wild card, but we saw teams all around us get better and we didn’t … [Bringing in help is] definitely big. I know teams feel it, clubhouses feel it.”

Last year, Breslow’s moves at the trade deadline were more like a quarter-measure. The Sox brought in pitchers James Paxton, Lucas Sims, and Luis Garcia and catcher Danny Jansen. Remember them? Exactly.

This year, the Red Sox will likely go bigger.

“The way I see the trade deadline … when teams add and you stay put, it’s not that you got worse. It’s just [that] other teams took a step forward,” manager Alex Cora said recently. “We haven’t done that in a few years here.”

Plan on this year being different.

🧩 5 Across: Cacophony | 🌤️ 83° Stunning days are here

Gabriel House fire: The death toll rose to 10 after 66-year-old Brenda Cropper, a great-grandmother who made friends easily, died of her injuries. Five others remain hospitalized.

Rümeysa Öztürk: In an op-ed, the Tufts PhD student who spent weeks in an ICE detention facility described unsanitary conditions and poor food, but also solidarity with her fellow detainees.

Primary challenge: Bethany Andres-Beck, a transgender software engineer, seeks to unseat Democratic Representative Seth Moulton, who has criticized his party’s stance on trans athletes.

Caught: Video from an audience camera at a Coldplay concert at Gillette Stadium this week went viral after it appeared to capture the CEO of a software development company having an affair.

Trump’s health: The president has a common vein condition that caused his legs to swell, the White House said. It attributed bruising on his hands, which Trump has tried to conceal with makeup, to handshakes and aspirin. (ABC)

AmeriCorps: The Trump administration abruptly restored funding to some programs it previously cut, giving no reason. (Starting Point wrote about AmeriCorps in May.)

Radio silence: House Republicans approved billions in cuts to public broadcasting and foreign aid, sending the bill to Trump. (AP) It could force programming cuts and layoffs at GBH, WBUR, and other New England stations.

Protest: Senate Democrats walked out of a committee hearing after Republicans cut short debate over two controversial Trump nominees: Jeanine Pirro, the former Fox host Trump picked to be D.C.’s top prosecutor, and Emil Bove, a lawyer accused by a whistleblower of urging officials to defy judges whom Trump nominated to become one. (The Hill)

Breonna Taylor: The Justice Department wants a Louisville police officer convicted in the 2020 killing of a Black woman to serve just one day in prison. (NYT 🎁)

Israel-Hamas war: Israel said it regretted “mistakenly” striking Gaza’s only Catholic church, which Pope Francis used to call daily, blaming the strike on “stray ammunition.” (WashPost 🎁)

Body image: Men’s bodies have been the default picture of strength for centuries. New research — which finds that women have better immune systems, metabolisms, and endurance — should change that, Starre Vartan argues in Globe Ideas.

To the candidates: Boston schools don’t have to be mediocre. Improving them should be the mayoral contenders’ top issue, the Globe’s editorial board writes.

Shunning retirement: Many musicians continue performing into old age. But there’s a lot to admire about those who quit too early rather than too late, says Globe columnist Renée Graham.

By Teresa Hanafin

💸 $1 million: That’s what the typical Greater Boston single-family home now costs, a record.

🌊 Whose sand is it? If you’ve ever had a coastal homeowner yell at you to get off “their” beach, you’ve run smack into Massachusetts’ restrictive beach access laws. Here’s a map and list of the beaches and other coastal points that are public.

📺 Weekend streaming: Shows starring Mass. natives picked up Emmy nominations this week. If you’re feeling parochial, you can watch these nominees.

💘 Blind date: They both work in the medical field and like to travel. Was that enough to spark a connection?

⬅️ ➡️ Moving to Splitsville: So many couples divorce or contemplate it that a new advice platform, My Next Chapter, has sprung up to help them navigate their future.

🏠 Home together: When their parents sold their house, the entire family gathered one final time, for one final meal, to reminisce and say goodbye to the only place all of them, together, had called home.

🦾 A little to the right, Hal: At the first standalone spa in Boston to offer AI-enabled massage, reporter Janelle Nanos got a rubdown from a ... robot. Here’s what it felt like.

Thanks for reading Starting Point.

This newsletter was edited by Teresa Hanafin.

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Tim Healey can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him @timbhealey.